Bitcoin's Wild Ride: From Moonshots to Mature Growth

The End of Triple-Digit Dreams?

Hold onto your hats, crypto fans! Bitcoin's days of skyrocketing triple-digit annual returns might be a thing of the past. That's the word from on-chain analyst Willy Woo, who says the growing presence of big-time investors is smoothing out Bitcoin's once-wild growth trajectory.

From Rocket to Steady Climb

Remember when Bitcoin was the ultimate rocket ship, fueled by internet buzz and the dreams of retail investors? Well, buckle up, because according to Woo, we're entering a new era. As the big players step in, Bitcoin might be settling into a more mature, slower growth phase.

The Magical Unicorn Myth

In a recent post on X, Woo didn't hold back, calling out the myth of Bitcoin's endless growth. "People think BTC is like a magical unicorn that climbs to infinity on moonbeams," he said. But the numbers tell a different story. Woo pointed to a chart showing that the triple-digit annual gains we saw in 2017 have faded away, suggesting those wild days might be behind us for good.

"People think BTC is like a magical unicorn that climbs to infinity on moonbeams. Here's the actual CAGR chart. We are well past the 2017 year where we'd see many 100s of percent growth. Now look at 2020, that was the year BTC got institutionalized, corporations and sovereigns..."

2020: The Turning Point

Woo pinpointed 2020 as the game-changer for Bitcoin, marking the start of the institutional adoption era. "Corporations and sovereigns started accumulating," he said. Since then, Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate has dropped from over 100% to around 30-40%, and it's been on a downward trend as more capital pours into the network.

According to Bitcoin Treasuries, private and public companies, ETFs, and governments are now holding nearly 3 million BTC as of May. When you factor in an estimated 3.5 million lost coins, that's about 18.75% of Bitcoin's effective circulating supply. Talk about a power move!

Bitcoin: The New Macro Asset

With this level of accumulation, Woo says Bitcoin is transforming into a macro asset right before our eyes. He expects it to "continue to absorb capital until it reaches its equilibrium." In other words, get ready for a new normal in the world of Bitcoin.

Moderating Growth, Long-Term Optimism

Don't panic, though! Woo believes Bitcoin will keep growing over the long haul, but its compound annual growth rate is likely to settle around 8%. That's taking into account long-term monetary expansion averaging about 5% and global GDP growth around 3%.

Despite the slowdown, Woo remains a Bitcoin bull, encouraging investors to "enjoy the ride" for the next 15 to 20 years. He points out that few publicly investable assets can match Bitcoin's performance over the long term, even as its growth rate gradually cools down.