Bitcoin's Bull Run: Is There More Fuel in the Tank?

On-Chain Data Hints at Further Upside

Bitcoin's soaring near all-time highs, and the latest on-chain intel screams there might just be more juice for this rally to keep going strong!

Get this: CryptoQuant's Darkfost dropped a hot take on July 17, saying Bitcoin could pump even higher before hitting a wall. It's all about those short-term holders, the folks who've snagged BTC in the last few months. They're the ones to watch right now.

So how do we spy on their moves? Enter the Market Value to Realized Value ratio. This bad boy compares Bitcoin's market price to what these short-term holders actually paid. It's the go-to gauge for figuring out how fat their unrealized profits are.

Here's the deal: When these short-termers' unrealized profits hit around 35%, it's like a sell signal. Boom, pullbacks usually follow. In the past, that's lined up with an MVRV of about 1.35.

But guess what? Right now, we're chilling at around 1.15. In plain speak, these holders aren't sitting on the kind of gains that have sparked sell-offs before. That means Bitcoin could have room to blast up another 20% to 25% before we hit that sweet spot where things get dicey.

What's driving this shift? The realized price, or what short-term holders paid on average, just crossed $100,000 for the first time ever. And get this, it's already over $102,000 this week. That higher starting point means it's tougher to hit those unrealized profit levels as fast as before, giving Bitcoin some serious breathing room.

Market Dynamics and Technical Outlook

Bitcoin took a hit after the latest U.S. inflation numbers dropped but bounced back like a champ. It dipped to about $116,000 but now it's flexing at around $118,600. That's just 3.6% off the record high of $123,000 set on July 14. Talk about resilience!

But hold up, even with the price recovery, the market's cooling off a bit. Daily trading volume's down over 22%, showing the momentum's taking a breather. Over in the derivatives world, volume's down 16.3% and open interest is slipping too. Looks like traders are getting a bit more cautious, at least for now.

From a tech standpoint, Bitcoin's hanging just under the upper Bollinger Band, sitting pretty at around $122,151. The relative strength index is at 69, right below the overbought line. That's strong but not overheated. Most of the oscillators, like momentum and MACD, are still flashing bullish.

Moving averages from 10 days to 200 days? They're all pointing up, telling us BTC's still in a solid bullish structure. The 10-day exponential moving average, currently around $116,464, has been holding up recent dips. It could be the floor if things get wild again.

If Bitcoin breaks past $120,000, it might just have the green light to test that $123,000 high again, as long as the bulls can bring back the volume. But if $116,000 doesn't hold, watch out. Eyes will be on the mid-Bollinger range, around $112,000.