Solana Soars on ETF News, But Doubts Creep In Fast

Solana (SOL) just had a wild ride! The crypto spiked after news broke that the first-ever Solana ETF with staking powers is dropping on July 2, 2025. Talk about a game-changer!

SOL shot up nearly 6% to hit $158.30 on Monday, but then it cooled off, settling at around $152.60. Even with the dip, it's still crushing its year-to-date low by about 44%, with a market cap over $81.6 billion. That's some serious cash!

What got everyone hyped? The upcoming REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF, hitting the scene tomorrow. This beast is gonna be the first U.S. ETF to let you stake and ride the spot price. It's a total shake-up from the old-school crypto ETFs that dodged staking like it was the plague.

But hold up, the party didn't last long. Investors started to chill out and question just how big this ETF's impact would be.

Why the cold feet? Take a look at Grayscale's Solana Trust (GSOL). It's been around for over 43 months and only wrangled about $75 million. Meanwhile, their Ethereum Trust (ETHE) was sitting pretty at $10 billion just before the spot Ethereum ETF launched in July 2024. Big difference!

Traders are getting antsy, and the numbers back it up. Solana's mojo is fading fast, even though it's the sixth-largest crypto out there.

Check out the perpetual futures on Hyperliquid - it's a mixed bag. Longs are slightly up on volume, but the shorts are raking in the dough, up over $6.71 million while longs are down more than $707,000. Ouch!

This split's telling us that a lot of folks who jumped on the ETF hype train are now feeling the burn. It's a rough ride, and the short-term outlook's looking shaky.

And there's more - the stablecoin market cap on Solana's network dropped from $13 billion in April to about $10.5 billion now. That's a big hit to on-chain liquidity and a sign that fewer folks are using the network.

Even with all the buzz around Solana memecoins, the network's revenue's tanked over 90% since January. Yikes!

All these red flags could keep dragging Solana down, ETF news or not.

Solana Price Analysis: What's Next?

Looking at the 1-day/USDT chart, SOL's pulling back toward that descending trendline it broke earlier. If it dips below that line, we could see a full-on trend reversal and a return of the bears.

The price also slipped under the 50-day simple moving average, a key support level. That's a sign the short-term strength is fading, adding more fuel to the bearish fire.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) popped up to 55 when the ETF news hit but fell back to 51. The initial buying frenzy's fizzling out.

With all these signals, SOL might test support at $143.10, right at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. If it breaks that, watch out - the next stop could be $126.48, its local low from last month.

And here's a big worry for SOL holders: over $585 million worth of SOL is set to be unstaked in the next two months. That could dump more selling pressure on the price.

But hey, in this crazy market, perception can trump the numbers. If the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF pulls in big bucks on day one, it could flip the script and kick off a fresh buying spree.

Disclosure: This article's for education, not investment advice. Don't take it as a call to buy or sell anything!