Ethena's ENA Token Teeters on Edge as Massive Unlock Looms

Price Action Stalls Amid Cautious Trading Range

Hold onto your hats, crypto fans! Ethena's native token ENA is currently trading at a shaky $0.2546. It's down a cool 4% in the last 24 hours, adding to its brutal 17% nosedive over the past month. And guess what? Another token unlock is breathing down its neck!

40.63 Million ENA Set to Hit the Market

The recent dip has ENA teetering in a nervous range between $0.2507 and $0.2659 over the past day. The price action is stalling hard below key resistance as a whopping 40.63 million ENA, worth a hefty $10.34 million, are set to be unleashed today, July 2. That's 0.67% of the current circulating supply!

Unlock Part of Broader Vesting Schedule

With only 39% of the total 15 billion ENA maximum supply in circulation so far, today's unlock is just a taste of the broader vesting schedule that could shake things up. These unlocks could flood the market with sell-side liquidity and mess with sentiment in the short term. But hey, Ethena's been through this before and bounced back. Still, the timing's got everyone on edge, especially with trading volume and derivatives interest dropping like a rock before the event.

Volume and Derivatives Interest Plummet

In the last 24 hours, volume has tanked nearly 29% to $115 million, while derivatives volume has cratered 37.7% to $316.75 million. Open interest has eased slightly to $319.06 million, showing traders are getting cold feet ahead of the unlock.

Technical Analysis Shows ENA Under Pressure

On the tech side, ENA is feeling the heat. Most major moving averages, from the 10-day to the 200-day, are flashing sell signals like a neon sign. The token's stuck trading below its 20-day EMA and SMA, hinting at weak short-term momentum. The relative strength index is flirting with oversold territory at 41.4, but it's still playing it cool.

Early Signs of Recovery, But Not Enough

Momentum and MACD indicators are showing some early signs of recovery, but they're not strong enough to flip the script. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signaling less volatility. The price is hugging the lower band, which is a red flag that could mean a sharp breakdown or a reversal if volume confirms it.

Bullish Scenario: Holding Above $0.25

If ENA can cling to life above the $0.25 support zone and soak up today's token unlock without crumbling, a surge in volume could send it charging back toward $0.28. A close above that level would open the door to a retest of the $0.30-$0.32 range.

Bearish Scenario: Falling Below $0.25

But if it can't hold $0.25, especially with low volume and more tokens hitting the market, ENA could be in for more pain. A decisive break below $0.245 would weaken the structure, putting the $0.22-$0.23 zone in the crosshairs and dragging sentiment down with it.