Bitcoin Suggests Bottoming as Indicators and Macro Scenario Improve

Bitcoin may be in the process of establishing a bottom, as several technical indicators and shifts in the macroeconomic landscape imply a potential recovery.

In an analysis released on March 24, cryptocurrency research firm 10X Research discussed Bitcoin's (BTC) recent consolidation and evolving outlook. The analysts initially anticipated a more drastic correction when Bitcoin fell below $95,000, confirming a breakdown from its ascending broadening wedge pattern.

However, a more favorable macro environment and enhanced technical indicators have contributed to a more positive outlook. A primary factor driving this shift in sentiment is the Federal Reserve's latest policy stance.

The FOMC meeting proceeded as anticipated, and the Fed conveyed a willingness to overlook short-term inflationary pressures. Analysts now foresee rate cuts in the latter half of the year, which bodes well for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Further fueling optimism, former President Donald Trump's recent statements regarding the April 2 tariff announcements indicate a more tempered approach compared to his previous remarks. This shift could help Bitcoin maintain its recent stability by diminishing short-term uncertainty.

Despite these positive developments, Bitcoin faces strong resistance between $90,000 and $92,000. According to 10X Research, the broader market is likely to continue consolidating until it breaks out of this range. Institutional investors are also exercising caution ahead of significant corporate earnings reports in April, which may impact the overall market sentiment.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $86,917, displaying a slight upward trend after rebounding from recent lows. Although further confirmation is needed, the MACD level suggests a possible bullish shift. The RSI at 51 indicates a neutral market, as Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold.

With prices remaining above critical levels, short-term moving averages support a bullish trend. However, the 100-day and 50-day moving averages still indicate potential resistance and downward movement. Currently, there is no clear breakout from the Ichimoku Base Line, reflecting the current price.

The Bollinger Bands indicate that the price is nearing the midline, which could signal a breakout or rejection in the near future. To surpass the next resistance level, around $90,000, Bitcoin must rise above $87,000 to $88,000. If it gets rejected, support may range from $84,500 to $85,000.

Meanwhile, investor sentiment appears to be improving, as last week saw the first inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since January. A more favorable macro environment and reduced selling pressure could support Bitcoin's next upward move, despite the present risks.