Live from the Fed: Caution Sweeps Across U.S. Businesses and Consumers

Holy moly, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book just dropped, and Bloomberg's ace reporter Catarina Saraiva is on it! She's calling out a wave of caution washing over U.S. businesses and consumers like a tsunami of uncertainty.

Saraiva's not pulling any punches, saying this Beige Book is "pretty similar" to what we've been seeing all year. We're talking slight dips in activity and a labor market that's just chilling, holding steady.

But here's the real kicker: uncertainty, especially those nasty trade tensions and tariffs, is seriously messing with everyone's heads. Saraiva says businesses and consumers are on the edge of their seats, just "waiting to see how this tariff fight plays out."

Get this - the Beige Book mentioned tariffs a whopping 122 times! And "economic activity declining modestly" was like a broken record across multiple regions. Yikes!

Consumer Spending? It's Hanging Tough!

Now, you might think those tariffs would have consumers running for the hills, but Saraiva says they're holding strong! She's like, "The consumer has stayed strong," and a big part of that is the labor market keeping it real. Retail sales are up a smidge, but hold your horses - big-ticket purchases? They're taking a nosedive.

And inflation? Saraiva's got her eye on it like a hawk. She's warning that if inflation expectations start going haywire, "That completely takes away the Fed's ability to control prices." But, hey, most inflation measures are still playing it cool, despite some wild swings in sentiment surveys.

Michelle Bowman: The Fed's Steady, Light-Touch Regulation Candidate

Saraiva's also dishing out the dirt on Michelle Bowman, President Trump's pick for the Federal Reserve's Vice Chair for Supervision. This woman's already a Fed governor, and she's all about that lighter-touch regulation life, totally not feeling those recent proposals for beefed-up capital requirements.

Saraiva's like, "Her views are very widely known… she's kind of aligned with the industry when it comes to [regulation]." But don't get it twisted - Bowman's still all about that rigorous supervision and even wants an independent review of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

And get this - Bowman might be gunning for Jerome Powell's spot as Fed Chair! She's already on the board and has "proven herself to be a dedicated policymaker." Watch out, Powell!