Goldman Sachs Flips Recession Forecast After Trump's Tariff Pause: Markets Soar

From Doom to Boom in 73 Minutes

Holy smokes, folks! Goldman Sachs just did a complete 180 on their recession forecast after President Trump hit the brakes on most new tariffs for 90 days. Talk about a rollercoaster! The markets, which were totally freaking out over trade war fears, are now breathing a sigh of relief.

Just this morning, Goldman's analysts were sounding the alarm, shifting to a recession baseline after new country-specific tariffs dropped. But then, bam! Trump makes his announcement, and Goldman's like, "Nah, we're good." They're now rocking a "non-recession baseline," expecting a modest GDP growth of 0.5% by Q4 2025 and three Fed rate cuts starting in June. Talk about a wild Wednesday!

The markets are going nuts over this news. Bitcoin just blasted past $82,000, and the Nasdaq is flirting with a 10% gain, bouncing back from its worst multi-day performance since the 2008 financial crisis. Even the 10-year Treasury yield chilled out, dropping from 4.5% to 4.4%.

Get this: Goldman Sachs' research department dropped these two totally opposite headlines just 73 minutes apart. You can't make this stuff up!

Trump, flexing on Truth Social, said multiple countries are now scrambling to talk trade and currency, which led to the tariff pause and a temporary drop of the reciprocal tariff rate to 10%. But hold up, tariffs on Chinese imports just got jacked up to 125%, effective immediately. It's like a game of tariff roulette out there!

Goldman's now putting the odds of a recession at 45% and expects core inflation to hit a peak of 3.5%, according to their latest client note. Buckle up, it's gonna be a bumpy ride!

This surprise move came after four days of market madness and everyone freaking out about a global recession. But now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is stepping up to lead the upcoming trade negotiations, and Wall Street's feeling pretty good about it thanks to his chill approach.