Polymarket's $1.1M Bet on the Next U.S. President: J.D. Vance Leads the Pack

Hang onto your hats, folks! Polymarket's sizzling betting pool on who'll be the next U.S. President is raking in over $1.1 million, and guess who's leading the charge? None other than J.D. Vance, with a cool 28% of the odds!

Who's your money on for the 2028 election? As of July 23, the betting crowd isn't feeling the Donald Trump comeback vibe. Sure, he's been dropping hints about a third term and even flogging "Trump 2028" caps since April, but the bettors ain't buying it.

Trump's odds are a measly 3%—yep, you heard that right. Could it be because the U.S. Constitution says you can only be elected twice? Maybe, but that hasn't stopped Trump or his die-hard fans from dreaming of another stint in the White House. And those $50 caps? They're flying off the shelves, especially after Trump declared he's "not joking" about a third term. The next election's set for November 2028, right after Trump's term wraps up.

Despite the long shot, Trump's still pulling in big bucks, with $148,028 in betting volume, second only to Vance.

On the flip side, Vice President J.D. Vance is the darling of the betting world, with a whopping 28% chance of taking over the Oval Office once Trump steps down. He's got $142,172 riding on him. But hold up—his numbers have slid from a high of 51% when the pool kicked off, now hovering between 25% and 28%.

Vance's numbers have been bouncing around, but he's still the man to beat.

Who else is Polymarket betting on?

It's not just Trump and Vance in the spotlight. Bettors are throwing their cash at a whole lineup of candidates from both sides of the aisle. Right behind the leaders is California Governor and Democrat Gavin Newsom, snagging 14% of the YES votes.

Then there's Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, another Democratic favorite, with 11% betting on her. Serving in New York's 14th district, she's been in the news lately after receiving death threats and vandalism over her vote on a defense spending bill related to Israel.

Other big names in the mix? Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., and even Elon Musk, the former Trump supporter and X owner.

And don't forget Kamala Harris—yep, the former Vice President and 2024 Presidential candidate is still in the game. With $117,168 in bets, she's got the same 3% odds as Trump.

How influential are Polymarket bets?

Polymarket bets aren't just for fun—they've been used to predict real-world outcomes. Remember the 2024 election? Traders bet a mind-blowing $3.6 billion, and Trump swept the poll with a 99.8% vote and $1.5 billion in volume.

In the crypto world, Polymarket tried to unmask the mysterious Bitcoin creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, during an HBO documentary called "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery."

But it's not all smooth sailing. Polymarket faced a major hiccup after a governance attack on their UMA oracle linked to Trump's Ukrainian mineral deal. A last-minute whale intervention tipped the scales, shaking trader trust in the platform's results.

So, what do you think? Will Polymarket's bets hold up, or will there be more twists and turns? Stay tuned, because the race to the White House is just heating up!