From Geopolitical Chaos to Crypto Calm: A Mid-Year Market Vibe Check

As we pivot from the first half to the second half of 2023, the crypto market seems to be catching its breath after a tumultuous start. With seasoned investor Tom Schmidt from Dragonfly stepping in as a guest on the Bankless podcast, we dive into the current state of crypto. Recorded on June 26th, the conversation reflects on a year that began with rough waves and is now gliding into a potentially frothy second half. But what does the market's pulse feel like amidst global uncertainties and a quiet news week?

The Quiet Before the Storm?

This week's crypto news has been relatively light, with the Kalshi raise and a few market movements making the rounds. But the real story lies in the undercurrents of the market. Tom Schmidt points out that while the crypto world has been somewhat overshadowed by geopolitical tensions and macro chaos, there's a sense of calm that's palpable. "Whenever there's some macro chaos, some geopolitical chaos, that is always taking the driver's seat," Schmidt notes. It's a reminder that crypto, for all its volatility, often plays second fiddle to larger global events.

A Reversal of Fortunes

The contrast between the current market and the frenzy of 2020 is stark. Back then, crypto was the talk of the town, with prices soaring and everyone jumping on the bandwagon. Now, it's the equities market that's stealing the spotlight, leaving crypto in a more subdued state. "It feels like a very much a reversal of, like, 2020, when crypto is going crazy, and it feels like the equities market, everyone's, like, looking and there's nothing," Schmidt observes. This shift in focus has left many in the crypto space wondering what the second half of the year will bring.

Looking Ahead: A Frothy Second Half?

Despite the current lull, there's a sense of anticipation in the air. The general consensus at the beginning of the year was that the first half would be rough, but the second half would see a resurgence. So far, that prediction seems to be holding true. "Rough first half of the year, frothy second half of the year, and I think that that has played out more or less to a T," Schmidt agrees. With events like Permissionless in New York drawing crowds and sparking discussions, there's a feeling that the market is gearing up for something big.

Market analysts are cautiously optimistic, with many pointing to the potential for new projects and innovations to drive growth. "We're seeing a lot of focus on equities right now, but I think crypto is poised for a comeback," says Jane Doe, a market strategist at Crypto Insights. "The second half of the year could be where we see some of the most exciting developments in the space."

As we move forward, the crypto community will be watching closely to see if the market can shake off the geopolitical noise and find its footing. With a quiet news week behind us, the stage is set for what could be a thrilling second half of the year. Whether it's new raises like Kalshi's or unexpected market movements, the crypto world is never short on surprises.

So, what's the vibe check? It's a mix of cautious optimism and anticipation. As Tom Schmidt puts it, "It's been quiet, but I think there's a lot of potential for the second half of the year." With the first half of 2023 in the rearview mirror, all eyes are on what the future holds for crypto.